Saturday, October 6, 2012

Statistics, Lying via Math.


So yesterday the Job’s Report came out at an amazing 7.8%

Now, I’m not sure about you, but I’m struggling to see how this is as amazing as we are being told. We are back to the levels we were at four years ago.

According to the Labor Department, based on a broad survey of employers, there were 114,000 jobs that were added in September, ten thousand of which were government jobs. 

But the unemployment rate itself is based on a separate "household survey," which showed a whopping 873,000 new jobs in September. 

The question that comes to my mind is how do you have employers showing that they added a little over a hundred thousand jobs and yet households are reporting almost a million jobs?

Well, I guess it depends on who you think is reporting accurately, or maybe what it is that they are reporting.

The household survey, which is smaller, includes part-time jobs and those who have become self employed. What does this mean? Well, the reality is we are not creating jobs the way the number is being spinned.

I don’t consider it a success when a person, who has been unable to find full time work, opts to either take a part time position or simply begins trying to work for themselves. Not that either of those choices is wrong, but it skews the data significantly. In fact, the data showed that the number of people with part-time jobs who wanted full-time work rose 7.5 percent to 8.6 million.

I’m not saying that a drop isn’t good news and I personally don’t subscribe to former GE CEO Jack Welch’s comment that somehow Chicago politics was involved in the numbers. In fact, anytime someone finds work I am happy. We have been struggling too long in this country. I’m just saying that I’m not about to jump on the hippy-happy “see its working” band wagon just right now.

At best I think we are only moving sideways right now. There is no growth. The unemployment rate is only where we were at when the President took office. There are also major questions about whether that rate is even correct when you factor in the number of people who just quit looking for work.

Here are the things I think about:

Unemployment: 7.8% (01/2009) – 7.8% (09/2012) / Underemployment: 14.7% (09/2012)
Misery Index: 7.83 (01/2009) – 9.79 (08/2012)
Gas: $1.83 (01/2009) - $3.88 (09/2012)
Electricity (per Kwh) 0.126 (01/2009) – 0.133 (08/2012)
Consumer Price Index: 211.143 (01/2009) - 230.379 (08/2012)

Bottom line is we really are not better off than we were four years ago. That’s not to say that things were perfect back then, but we live in the here and now.

To use a sports analogy: if your teams old head coach sucked, and you replaced him with someone who promised you he would change things and make the team a winner; would you be happy after fours years of the same record you?

Will Romney be better? I don’t know, but after the last four years I am wiling to give him a shot. I did like his comment during the recent debate that programs should be judged as to whether they are important enough for us to borrow money from China to fund them. I use that same principal when I want to purchase something and I have to use a credit card. Why shouldn’t the government use that same benchmark?

I do know for a fact that some of what he says is true. Individuals and businesses are unsure of their future. That uncertainly is causing a “wait and see” attitude, which we honestly can’t afford.

I feel a lot of people go to D.C. with the best of intentions and find themselves knee deep in the muck. Remember back in 2008 when then Speaker Nancy Pelosi said “we are going to drain the swamp.” How’d that work out, honestly?

As individuals, we’ve tightened our families’ fiscal belt. We’ve cut out wasteful spending. We are being responsible. We have done all we can to improve our lot, it’s time for the government to do their part and I have not seen it happen yet. 

In reality it is our fault. We have elected people to represent us and yet we do not hold them accountable. For too long we let the “special interest” groups have their way with them without us checking up on them. Now we are in the position of trying to figure out how to reign them back in.

I want someone to make my life better, not just tell me how it could have been a lot worse. That’s not hope and change, that’s politics as usual.

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